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MOLDOVA: ITS EUROPEAN FUTURE AND THE RUSSIAN INFLUENCE
On October 20th, 2024 the first round of presidential election was held in Moldova. Among eleven candidates, the pro-western and pro-European incumbent President, Maia Sandu received 42.29% of the votes and the pro-Russian candidate, Alexandr Stoianoglo got 25.95%. Since none of the candidates received more than 50% of the votes a second round between Sandu and Stoianoglo was held on November 3rd, 2024. Sandu got 55.41% of the votes and re-elected as the Moldovan President, while Stoianoglo received 44.59%. Moreover, on October 20th, 2024 - together with the presidential election - a referendum took place, asking Moldovan citizens if the wish to amend the Constitution by including in it the state’s goal of the EU accession. The referendum was valid since the turnout reached 50.69% of the voters, while a narrow majority of 50.35% of the voters endorsed the constitutional amendment, confirming the Moldovan citizens’ commitment to the European prospect of the country. 49.65% of the voters voted against the goal of the EU accession, showing that the Moldovan citizens are almost divided with the country’s future. Nevertheless, the referendum is considered as successful for the pro-European forces in Moldova, legitimizing the right of amending the Constitution in favor of the pro-European orientation of the country.
The electoral process was held amid an atmosphere of suspicions, signs, and rumors for Russian interference through hybrid actions, information operations (INFO OPS), cyber activity, and electoral corruption. It is alleged that Russia has spent more than $150 mln for electoral bribing, vote buying, and misinformation activities. Apart from that, there are strong signs that Moscow has established an excessive network of Moldovan citizens not only to support its activities against Moldova, but also to destabilize the country through violent protests and attacks against state institutions. Russian strategy seeks to weaken the ruling pro-European and pro-Western political forces of Moldova led by Maia Sandu, aiming to block the state’s process towards its accession to the EU. In this strategic plan, Moscow has invested in the support of the pro-Russian Transnistria, Gagauzia, and the Moldovan Orthodox Church. Critical is also the role of the Moldovan fugitive – he has sentenced in 15 years imprisonment in absentia for his role in the 2014 Moldovan bank fraud scandal – Ilan Shor, currently living in Russia. On the other hand, Sandu and the Pro-European forces seek to strengthen the European orientation of the country and this was the goal of the referendum; to secure and to institutionalize Moldova’s accession process towards the EU through the amendment of the Constitution.
With the crucial parliamentary elections of Moldova ahead, scheduled to be held no later than July 2025, it is assessed that Russian actions to destabilize the country will continue even more intensified, seeking to support the pro-Russian political forces and to hold Sandu “hostage” towards the implementation of her strategic plan of Moldova’s EU accession.
December 15th, 2024
Ioannis Karampelas
President of HERMES Institute of International Affairs, Security & Geoeconomy
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December 18th, 2024
National Day of:
REPUBLIC OF NIGER
National Day or Republic Day of Niger is celebrated every year on December 18th in commemoration of the creation of the Republic, alongside the establishment of the office of the Presidency. Before this, Niger was under French rule. Though December 18th is not the Republic’s official Independence Day; it marks the founding of its national institutions. Niger was colonized by France, which began its occupation in the 1890s. Though they gained independence in 1960, December 18th, 1958, marks the significant day that Niger became a republic. On December 18th, Hamani Diori also became President of the provisional Government. He was later appointed as President when Niger became fully independent in 1960.
STATE OF QATAR
Qatar National Day is a national commemoration of Qatar's unification in 1878 and it is celebrated annually on December 18th every year. On December 18th, 1878, Sheikh Jassem bin Mohammed Al Thani succeeded his father, Mohammed bin Thani as ruler of the Qatari Peninsula. He is deemed to have unified all the local tribes by combating external forces, such as the British. He also earned a considerable degree of autonomy for the tribes of the peninsula. In 1916, Qatar became a British protectorate and was only able to become independent after the British disengaged politically from the Persian Gulf; this was officially announced in 1968 as a result of the strain from the Second World War.
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