May 3rd, 2024

National Day of the Republic of Poland

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National Day or Constitution Day in Poland is always celebrated annually on May 3rd. The day marks the declaration and adoption of Poland's first Constitution on May 3rd, 1791; the first modern Constitution in Europe. The Polish Constitution was based on principles influenced by the French revolution and introduced a constitutional monarchy. The Constitution itself applied to the Polish - Lithuanian commonwealth and the implementation of the Constitution led to the 'War of the defense of the Constitution' between the commonwealth and conservative nobility backed by the Russia empire, leading to the Second Partition of Poland in 1792, the Kosciuszko uprising of 1794 and the final, Third Partition of Poland, in 1795. The Constitution delisted during the times of the Polish People's Republic, but it was reestablished after the fall of communism in modern Poland. ​​​​​​​​

                                                    PRESIDENTIAL AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN NORTH MACEDONIA

On May 8th, 2024 North Macedonia will hold double elections; the second round of the presidential and scheduled parliamentary elections. The first round of the presidential election was held on April 24th, 2024 with the center-right VMRO-DPMNE candidate, Gordana Siljanovska – Dankova achieving a substantial victory over the ruling SDSM candidate and incumbent President, Stevo Pendarovski. Siljanovska got 40.1% of the votes, while Pendarovski took 19.9%, signaling a dominant victory for the VMRO-DPMNE candidate. However, since none of the candidates achieved the absolute majority, namely more than 50% plus one vote, a runoff between the two candidates is needed on May 8th, 2024. The parliamentary election is considered as more important than the presidential one, taking into consideration that the President of the state enjoys a rather ceremonial role with limited institutional powers.

Siljanovska’s broad victory demonstrates in the most emphatic way that a political change of power is taking place in the country’s internal politics, due to the citizens’ frustration for the state’s EU accession failure, the deterioration of the economy and people’s living standards, and the excessive corruption. Actually, the progress of the country’s accession to the EU was the main pre-electoral question and Pendarovski acknowledged it by stating after the first round of the election that the result is related with the slow progress of EU accession. Apart from the two main ethnic Slav-Macedonian parties, there are two coalitions – the European Front (which includes DUI) and VLEN – representing ethnic Albanians and will have a regulatory role on the next election day. The “For our Macedonia” (ZNAM) party could also have an important role in the formation of a new Government following the parliamentary election and assessing that none of the parties will achieve the absolute majority in the 120 seat Parliament.

The Euro-Atlantic community – namely the EU, the US, and NATO – are watching the potential political shift in North Macedonia carefully since there are concerns that a VMRO-DPMNE ruling coalition could follow a rather pro-Russian stance, undermining the stability and cohesion of the regional security architecture amid the war in Ukraine and the Russian aggression. Moreover, VMRO-DPMNE is maintaining a nationalist hardline which threatens to deteriorate neighboring relations with Bulgaria and Greece, further undermining the European future of the country. In short, the May 8th parliamentary elections are considered as critical for the state regarding the EU accession negotiations, the improvement of relations with neighboring countries, the establishment of rule of law, the fight of corruption, and the improvement of state’s economy and living standards.  

May 7th, 2024

Ioannis Karampelas

President of HERMES Institute of International Affairs, Security & Geoeconomy