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World's last week in a minute... (10.08.2024 - 16.08.2024)
26.07.2024: Algeria condemns France’s recognition of Morocco’s Western Sahara plan.
26.07.2024: Venezuela opposition sees military ensuring respect for vote results.
25.07.2024: A rebel army in Myanmar said it had seized control of a major regional military headquarters near the border with China, in what could be the biggest recent defeat for the ruling junta.
25.07.2024: Ukraine tells China it is open to talks if Moscow acts in good faith.
25.07.2024: Biden stressed to Netanyahu the need to reach a Gaza ceasefire, remove obstacles in flow of aid and protect civilian lives in military operations, the White House said.
24.07.2024: The US has invited the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces for U.S.-mediated ceasefire talks starting on August 14th in Switzerland.
23.07.2024: Macron rejects left-wing alliance's effort to name a prime minister.
23.07.2024: Hungary to block EU's Ukraine defense funds until Kyiv lifts ban on Lukoil transit
22.07.2024: The Philippines has reached a provisional agreement with China on its resupply missions to soldiers aboard a grounded naval vessel in the South China Sea.
21.07.2024: President Biden withdraws from 2024 election, endorses Vice President, Kamala Harris.
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July 14th, 2024
National Day of the French Republic
The French National Day or Bastille Day is celebrated on July 14th every year, commemorating the toppling of the long-standing French monarchy, symbolized by the storming of a fortress and political prison in Paris, on Bastille Day on July 14th, 1789; a major event of the French Revolution. Originally constructed as a medieval fortress, the Bastille was eventually used as a state prison. Prisoners who were directly sent there under orders of the king would get no trial or right of appeal, at times including political prisoners who spoke against the rules and laws set by the ruling king. In 1789, tensions rose in France between reformist and conservative factions as the country struggled to resolve an economic crisis, leading the people to an armed revolution. Οn July 14th, a crowd besieged the "Hôtel des Invalides" for firearms, muskets, and cannons stored in its cellars. That same day a mob approached the Bastille to demand the arms and ammunition stored there and when the forces guarding the structure resisted, the attackers captured the prison and released the seven prisoners held there. The taking of the Bastille signaled the beginning of the French Revolution, and it thus became a symbol of the end of the ancient monarchical regime.
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TODAY
PRESIDENTIAL AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN NORTH MACEDONIA
On May 8th, 2024 North Macedonia will hold double elections; the second round of the presidential and scheduled parliamentary elections. The first round of the presidential election was held on April 24th, 2024 with the center-right VMRO-DPMNE candidate, Gordana Siljanovska – Dankova achieving a substantial victory over the ruling SDSM candidate and incumbent President, Stevo Pendarovski. Siljanovska got 40.1% of the votes, while Pendarovski took 19.9%, signaling a dominant victory for the VMRO-DPMNE candidate. However, since none of the candidates achieved the absolute majority, namely more than 50% plus one vote, a runoff between the two candidates is needed on May 8th, 2024. The parliamentary election is considered as more important than the presidential one, taking into consideration that the President of the state enjoys a rather ceremonial role with limited institutional powers.
Siljanovska’s broad victory demonstrates in the most emphatic way that a political change of power is taking place in the country’s internal politics, due to the citizens’ frustration for the state’s EU accession failure, the deterioration of the economy and people’s living standards, and the excessive corruption. Actually, the progress of the country’s accession to the EU was the main pre-electoral question and Pendarovski acknowledged it by stating after the first round of the election that the result is related with the slow progress of EU accession. Apart from the two main ethnic Slav-Macedonian parties, there are two coalitions – the European Front (which includes DUI) and VLEN – representing ethnic Albanians and will have a regulatory role on the next election day. The “For our Macedonia” (ZNAM) party could also have an important role in the formation of a new Government following the parliamentary election and assessing that none of the parties will achieve the absolute majority in the 120 seat Parliament.
The Euro-Atlantic community – namely the EU, the US, and NATO – are watching the potential political shift in North Macedonia carefully since there are concerns that a VMRO-DPMNE ruling coalition could follow a rather pro-Russian stance, undermining the stability and cohesion of the regional security architecture amid the war in Ukraine and the Russian aggression. Moreover, VMRO-DPMNE is maintaining a nationalist hardline which threatens to deteriorate neighboring relations with Bulgaria and Greece, further undermining the European future of the country. In short, the May 8th parliamentary elections are considered as critical for the state regarding the EU accession negotiations, the improvement of relations with neighboring countries, the establishment of rule of law, the fight of corruption, and the improvement of state’s economy and living standards.
May 7th, 2024
Ioannis Karampelas
President of HERMES Institute of International Affairs, Security & Geoeconomy