Feature Title
TODAY
BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA'S POLITICAL AND CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS
On February 26th, 2025 the Court of Bosnia & Herzegovina (BiH) handed down its first-instance verdict against the Republika Srpska (RS) President, Milorad Dodik sentencing him to one year in prison and a six year ban on holding public office, for violating the decisions of the Head of the Office of High Representative (OHR). In a prompt response, Dodik signed decrees – adopted by the RS Assembly – prohibiting the BiH judicial (Court and Prosecutor’s office of BiH, High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council) and security (State Investigation and Protection Agency) agencies to conduct any activity within the RS territory. Moreover, Dodik announced that the Bosnian-Serb entity will adopt a new Constitution and it will establish its own border police, while he asked from Bosnian-Serb employees to state institutions to withdraw from their works. BiH Constitutional Court has suspended the disputed laws of RS, while the Prosecutor’s Office of BiH has issued an arrest warrant for the questioning of Dodik, the RS Prime Minister Radovan Viskovic, and the RS National Assembly Speaker Nenad Stevandic for violating the constitutional order of the state.
BiH has entered the most serious political and constitutional crisis since the signing of the Dayton peace accords, threatening the sustainability and stability of the country’s building. A potential worsening of the crisis could spill over regionally, threatening the peace and security of the broader Balkan area. Although the undermining of BiH’s cohesion is an integral part of Dodik’s agenda aimed at the secession of the RS, the reaction and rhetoric of the Serb-Bosnian President, following the announcement of the condemnatory verdict, were not extreme, reflecting a covered willingness for talks and negotiation. In this context, it is assessed that the security situation of the country remains stable, and no extreme or violent reactions are expected. The steadfast stance of the U.S. and the EU (with the exception of Hungary) in favor of the political and constitutional order of BiH, Serbia’s reluctance to support Dodik’s separatist plans, and Russia’s current inability to substantively support RS (despite its steady encouragement of the undermining of BiH, using RS as a “Trojan Horse”) have put Dodik in a difficult position, effectively “self-trapping” him in a situation where he seems hesitant to take the next step toward further escalation.
However, the current crisis can also be seen as an opportunity; an opportunity to reassess the political and constitutional structure of the country, making it more resilient to the dysfunctionalities and subversions that render it vulnerable to destabilization, allowing it to remain committed to its path toward the Euro-Atlantic integration, which currently is under question.
April 16th, 2025
Ioannis Karampelas
President of HERMES Institute of International Affairs, Security & Geoeconomy
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April 18th, 2025
National Day of: Republic of Zimbabwe
National or Indpendence Day of Zimbabwe is celebrated on April 18th marking its independence from the United Kingdom on this day in 1980. Zimbabwe was first colonized by Europeans with the arrival of the British South Africa Company in the 1890s. The company had been founded by Cecil Rhodes in 1889 to colonize the region. The area became known as Southern Rhodesia (in honor of Cecil Rhodes) in 1895 and was governed by the British South Africa Company until 1922 when the European settlers voted to become a British Colony. In 1953, Britain created the Central African Federation, made up of Southern Rhodesia (Zimbabwe), Northern Rhodesia (Zambia) and Nyasaland (Malawi). Following the breakup of the Federation in 1964, when Zambia and Malawi gained independence, Ian Smith became Prime Minister of the country (now called Rhodesia). Smith began a campaign for independence from Britain, with the government being run by the white minority. Independence was declared in 1965, but was not recognised internationally and led to sanctions against Rhodesia. This also led to an extensive campaign of guerilla warfare within Rhodesia and the rise of the Zanu and Zapu organisations. Under this pressure, the white minority finally consented to multiracial elections in 1980. Robert Mugabe and his Zanu party won the independence elections, with Mugabe becoming Prime Minister and Zimbabwe's independence being formally recognised on April 18th 1980.
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